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Nov 16, 2022Liked by Matt Tait

Thanks for the reasonable take Matt. All the random takes on twitter today made me almost vomit from anxiety :/. LOT of randos saying this was automatically Article V/the pretext for a direct clash. I never felt that would be the case but doubted myself cause I’m not an expert but you are

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If it is an errant Ukrainian surface-to-air missile it will be a tragic accident. For me, the most important fact is that this situation is a Russian creation, regardless of whose metal ultimately fell on and killed these Polish citizens. If Russia had not fired their barrage of missiles, these Polish citizens would not have died today.

Were an air defense missile to kill neighboring citizens in a friendly state during peacetime, there would likely be a serious but dignified investigation, an apology, and reparations. Under the current circumstances this situation will likely be used by Russia and Ukraine to attack each other's moral standing. Unfortunately, Ukraine - having the moral high ground - has much more to lose on the diplomatic stage. I was dismayed to see reports that President Zelenskyy stated that the missile was Russian, not Ukrainian. If that turns out not to be true it seems like a misstep for the usually savvy Zelenskyy administration.

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