In a post earlier this week, I laid out why a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine was very unlikely in the near-term; they disagree too fundamentally on the terms of the peace agreement, and are both holding out expecting an negotiating advantage later based on their respective views on their medium and long-term battlefield prospects.

This post looks to answer a slightly different question: what are those terms?

The purpose of this post really two-fold:

• as a memorialization of the evolution of these negotiations so far as best as I can reverse-engineer them from public sources, starting at the beginning of the conflict, and how those terms have evolved on the two sides.

• as a reference for future negotiations, when they eventually materialize

It’s also partly a response to Peskov’s statements today:

ISW @TheStudyofWar

5/ Peskov, however, reiterated that the Kremlin is still pursuing its “demilitarization” and “denazification” objectives in Ukraine, which confirms that Russia is still pursuing regime change and the elimination of Ukraine’s ability to resist future Russian attacks or pressure.

2:41 AM ∙ Dec 9, 2022

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These two phrases demilitarization and denazification have specific meaning in the context of Russia’s demands, and interpreting their precise meaning requires a bit of work to keep close track of the negotiations over time.

Note that because negotiations are generally conducted in secret, many of these are based on my interpretation of public statements by key figures and after-the-fact reporting; the formal drafts are not public.